Understanding the Mandate
After declaration of assembly poll results of five state Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand on 10th March 2022, all political party leaders, journalists and political analyst are interpreting the mandate given by the public in their own way. The mandate of the public is explained in various ways but the gist is that Indian voter is immature, stupid and gullible; could be manipulated easily to vote on caste and religious lines. The voter is communal; all Muslim vote to keep BJP out of power and Hindu vote for BJP only because of Hindutva. The voter is indifferent to the importance of issues like inflation, unemployment, poverty, Covid crises. The welfare measures and infrastructure development does not matters to the voter. The vote is for sale by promises of free ration, electricity and water.
There is a group of journalist, who are shocked by the BJP win in four states particularly in Uttar Pradesh. For last six months they have been explaining that the BJP has lost the public confidence in Uttar Pradesh due to mishandling of Covid crises, the Hindutva appeal is fading; farmers are against BJP due to farm law agitation. These journalists invented a fictional disagreement between CM Yogi Adityanath and PM Narendra Modi and even so called right wing media persons discussed it for days. According to these journalists the Samajwadi Party under Akhilesh Yadav formed a rainbow coalition and BJP will be wiped out in this election. All these assumptions proved wrong. The common conclusion is that people voted on caste and religious lines. BJP has communalized the election and people voted for it in polarized manner.
Magsaysay award winner Sri Ravish Kumar blamed the people of ignoring inflation, Covid crises and voting on communal lines; showing thereby that he has lost faith in wisdom of the common people. Senior journalist Sri Shekhar Gupta says BJP wins election where it garners more than 50 percent of Hindu votes and goes on to suggest strategies how BJP could be defeated. The Aam Aadmi Party win in Punjab is attributed to people’s choice of Delhi model of Arvind Kejriwal.
IS ALL THESE INTERPRETATION CORRECT?
INDIAN VOTER has repeatedly shown that it has matured over the period. He knows national interest and his personal interest far better than many politicians do or media persons do. With time, the voter has realized that his vote is secret and he has no obligation to tell anybody to whom he has voted. This is more applicable for women voter; she does not have to vote as per the preference of the family. She has her own grounded survival instinct, that is diametrically opposite to what the male members of the family think; she has become brave enough to not only vote as per her own preference, but also in some cases to openly accept her preference.
Orissa Assembly elections held in May 2019 is sufficient evidence that public knows the effect of his vote. The Biju Janata Dal won 117 seats whereas BJP won 23 in 147 seats Orissa Assembly. In the elections held on the same date BJP won 8 parliament seats against 12 seats won by BJD. In Chhattisgarh Assembly election of November 2018 Congress won 68 seats whereas BJP won only 15 seats. In the elections held just after six months BJP won 9 parliament seats against 2 seats won by Congress. There are multiple examples; only these two are picked to show maturity of supposedly illiterate and ignorant voter of two of the most backward state.
National security and personal security remained paramount issues in public mind. Contrary to common perception, division of power as envisaged in schedules of the Constitution, is known to the common man far better than many eminent intellectuals. The public knows state government not central government is responsible for law and order failure. For garbage disposal they don’t blame a Modi however much a Kejriwal likes it to believe.
Anti-incumbency as we know it is a massage to the party in power that the voter does not like its policies and working. The new incumbent always thinks it as a positive mandate of its promises taking no lessons from experience of the outgoing government or its own ouster in previous election. In Uttar Pradesh, all past elections since 1990 were decided on the issue of law and order, but parties took no notice of it indulging in blatant caste and appeasement politics. The law and order particularly affects women, they suffer whether they belong to the family of the victim or the criminal. They live under a constant fear of losing someone near and dear. Male could not appreciate the humiliation and pain of sexual abuse. The BJP win in Uttar Pradesh is based on improvement of law and order and consequently sense of security among women voters; who have predominantly voted for it.
AAP win in Punjab also has in its roots in law and order issue. The public, for allowing drug business to flourish, has not pardoned the Shiromani Akali Dal; this is clear by loss Sri Prakash Singh Badal the senior most and most respected of its leader. Amrinder Singh lost because of his support to farmers agitation and lawlessness created by agitating farmers. Public does not like destruction of property even if it belongs to a business house, Jio Towers are an example. Congress CM Channi lost both seats he was contesting to rank outsiders to politics is another indication of public anger against all established parties.
The leaders in AAP and media want everyone to believe that the people have endorsed the Delhi Model. The AAP’s win in Punjab is a vote of anger against all established parties over whom people would have preferred a lamppost. The people have more faith on Bhagwant Singh Mann and local leadership which comes from its own fold i.e. the common man. That for even the voter in Delhi the AAP was never an alternative to the BJP at the centre is clear from last four election in which the AAP gets massive mandate in Assembly whereas BJP sweeps the parliamentary election.
That the voter is not greedy and has not fallen for free electricity and other freebies promises by Akhilesh Yadav of SP, many promises by Congress in UP. The much hyped Nyay promise of Congress had no effect on voters in 2019 General Election. The massive mandate in Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand and UP shows that the voter is not ungrateful, it acknowledges the ration and other benefits given during the time of pandemic. The mandate in Goa is an important indication that people like good governance and corruption free government. It is third consecutive BJP government, last time it was formed after defection and bargaining, but BJP returns with larger mandate.
The Hindu majority voter has never voted on communal lines. It has never totally rejected a Catholic Sonia Gandhi, it is not lured by dramatic display of Hindu symbols by Rahul Gandhi. The Hindu Voter has time and again showed that his voting preference are not decided by his religion. Even in the peak period of Ram Janam Bhumi movement BJP was not given a overwhelming majority. The BJP got its majority in 2014 General Election for the hope created by performance of Narendra Modi in Gujarat. The repeat with larger mandate in 2019, is on the basis of delivery by Narendra Modi on his promises.
The National Security is a big issue with the public and throughout remained so. Inspite of his huge popularity, Nehru could not escape wrath of the public for 1962 debacle. Lal Bahadur Shastri become a hero in every heart for 1965 win, same is true for Indira for 1971 war. Narendra Modi has in last eight years has cemented this faith in public that nation is safe in his hands. This is a biggest single factor for his tremendous popularity among the masses.
Yes, the Hindu voters vote on caste lines. Slowly and steadily this hold is decreasing. Loss of election by OBC leaders Swami Prasad Maurya, Om Prakash Rakbhar and others is an indication. BSP has shred a large chunk of its lower caste vote. A dalit CM termed as a Master stroke by many could not garner dalit votes for the Congress. Muslim vote for anyone who could defeat BJP, this negative veto is slowly losing its efficacy; with time this pattern will also change. Muslims, Yadavs, Jats and other caste group will definitely be rethinking what they have gained by voting for a particular party.
The leading intellectuals and journalists are all misinterpreting the mandate. The way these journalists behaved in this election particularly in Uttar Pradesh shows their bias. They not only failed in reading the pulse of the people, but openly campaigned for SP through propaganda. The public was able to see through them. Their bias is apparent by the fact that they are openly advising the opposition how to defeat BJP, which is not the job a neutral journalist. All their intellect will be of no use for the opposition because it needed a leader who could inspire confidence and an organization, which can work hard.
